Guoxin Securities Annual performance growth real estate sector was

 1,2010 results in most of the real estate stocks continued to grow. 2009 sales of hot, pre-sale system, most of the achievements realized in 2010.

as of January 24, about 61 about notice published results or results of Letters, which increased 40: 1, an increase of over 500% more than a port of shares, in Hong real estate, home, etc. Tianlun ; 2, an increase of more than 100% to 500% of Shenshen Fang A, Sunshine City, ST agriculture, etc.; 3, an increase of more than 30% to 100% of Golden Group, the first open shares, First City Chase, OCT, Emori development Shenzhen Ye A, South building. We expect China Vanke, Poly Real Estate, investment real estate, and other undisclosed Huafa mainstream performance forecast net profit growth in 2010 varieties of 30% or more.

2, the industry is beginning to achieve adaptation

overall performance is better than the coastal cities first and second tier cities, national and regional leader showed strong adaptability and resilience, sales beautiful, leading real estate lock plate good performance in 2011 (up 30%, as of end Q3 2010 At least 35% has been locked). Through the test in 2008, most housing prices on a more rational market and their own judgments, the ability to resist risks have increased, the industry funding strand breaks little risk.

3, based on the above analysis, we maintain the

Since our strategy since the release of the year, property stocks excess return significantly, revealing some of the defensive, the current valuation is still at a historical bottom, is nothing less than the future stock price performance based on fundamentals, according to two cases Deduction: 1, sales growth, the policy difficult to loose, if the end of the maintenance history of the valuation, the stock will be revised upwards; 2 流拍 weak sales led to the land, the investment decline, economic growth and fiscal revenue will bring significant negative impact policy had to loose, real estate stocks will usher in the trend of policy shift brought about by chance.

4, we propose at this stage bargain jiacang, grasp the two main lines:


1, low valuation, financial stability, performance and good national and regional lock leader, such as the Golden Group, Vanke, Poly Real Estate, the first open shares, Jiakai City; 2, real estate + X, such as Fuxing shares, transit city to vote, OCT. In addition, due attention to the possible presence of high species sent to turn.

(This article Source: Guoxin Securities)